000
FXUS62 KTAE 031339
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
940 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

.DISCUSSION...RECENT RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED HURRICANE
EARL SLIPPING NORTHWARD ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WITH
ADJACENT MID-LATITUDE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT
TRAILS FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY INTO TX. WEAK
RIDGING CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE SE WITH AMPLE DRY AIR ALOFT.

TODAY...EXPECT THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE TODAY AS WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BRING DRY MID-LEVEL AIR INTO THE REGION.
RECENT SOUNDING FROM TLH SHOWS PWAT AT JUST OVER ONE INCH. BOTH NAM
AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS PREDICT A SLOW INCREASE IN PWAT THROUGH THE
EVENING AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. STILL...WITH WIDESPREAD
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA...EXPECT ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR DAY AS WE
MOVE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER...IT WILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S. DUE TO LOWER
MOISTURE CONTENT...INLAND FLORIDA COUNTIES MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS.

TWEAKED GRIDS SLIGHTLY FOR CLOUD COVER OVER THE BIG BEND AND BROUGHT
IN MOST RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
SEAS AROUND 1 FOOT OR LESS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
LOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BY MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH MAY LEAD TO INCREASED EASTERLY
WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. HEADLINE CRITERIA WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE.

.AVIATION...AFTER BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT MOST SITES THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WITH ONLY A FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR VSBYS ALL SITES ON SATURDAY MORNING. THESE
RESTRICTIONS COULD BE OF LONGER DURATION AND COVER A LARGER AREA DUE
TO THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY MORNING.

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7
PM      EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES
CALHOUN...GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND BAY...INLAND
JEFFERSON...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...LEON...LIBERTY...
MADISON...WASHINGTON.

GM...NONE.

AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...AUSTIN/CAMP
REST OF DISCUSSION...AUSTIN