FXUS62 KTAE 041129
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
628 AM EST Sat Feb 4 2012

...Updated for 12z Aviation Discussion...

.AVIATION...
So far the MVFR cigs have not developed across the area this 
morning with no sign of it at 11z. Confidence is low that this will  
happen now and these cigs have been removed from the TAFs for this 
morning. Mid and high level cloud cover will continue across the 
area through the day with VFR conditions expected to prevail. 
Guidance indicates that low cigs and/or fog could become a concern 
late in the TAF period but confidence on the coverage and density 
is low for that far out in time.

 
_______________________Previous Discussion________________________

.SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM Today through Monday...With the lingering 
mid and upper level clouds gradually exiting the region from west to 
east today we expect high temps to be quite warm across the CWA  
this afternoon. Highs will be climbing into the mid to upper 70s 
with a few spots possibly reaching the 80 degree mark around the 
Suwannee River Valley as we remain under the influence of the warm 
Sub-Tropical Ridge. With fairly decent low level lapse rates evident 
in last nights TAE sounding isolated to scattered showers and 
thunderstorms could develop with enough heating this afternoon. By 
later tonight and Sunday cloudiness and rain chances will be on the 
increase from west to east as a broad area of low pressure to our NW 
moves eastward and drags the tail end of a weakening Cold Front 
through the Tri State area. It will remain unseasonably warm and 
humid once again and highs could still reach the mid to upper 70s 
before the insolation is reduced. By Monday the fcst becomes a bit 
more challenging as there are some discrepancies between the models 
on whether the Cold Front makes a clean passage per the 00Z GFS and 
earlier 12Z ECMWF or ends up stalling near or just south of the 
region as suggested by the 00Z Nam and new 00Z Euro. At this time 
after coordinating with our adjacent offices the consensus will 
call for clearing skies along with cooler and drier weather for the 
beginning of the week. 

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Saturday The long term forecast 
is still low confidence with model disagreements continuing. The 
03/12z Euro made a change from its 02/00z run and trended wetter 
across the area on Wednesday into Wednesday night with a decent 
upper level shortwave moving north of the area. This would have 
brought rain into the area a full day faster than the GFS. However 
the new 04/00z Euro has a weaker shortwave now and is back to dry 
conditions all the way until next Saturday. The developing pattern 
is a tough one for the models to handle with both northern and 
southern stream disturbances and their interactions with each other 
to consider. The 04/00z GFS has remained fairly consistent with its 
handling of the southern stream and continues to show a Gulf low 
affecting the area on Thursday with deep moisture and widespread 
rainfall. Previous Euro runs left a cutoff upper level low west of 
the Baja whereas the GFS has been more progressive moving it 
eastward and spawning the Gulf low. The new 04/00z Euro actually 
trended towards the GFS with its 500 mb depiction but it does not 
show any surface reflection in the Gulf until Saturday. The GFS has 
some support from the Canadian model in showing increasing rain 
chances on Thursday. The 04/00z GFS ensemble mean 500 mb pattern 
also continues to agree with the GFS. It does seem probable that it 
will rain sometime between Thursday and Saturday but given the 
discrepancies in timing PoPs were kept in the low chance range 
until the timing of these systems can be better defined.

.MARINE...Winds and seas are continuing at cautionary levels across 
the coastal waters this morning but these should gradually decrease 
below headline levels by this afternoon. Winds will then become very 
light for the remainder of the weekend but seas are expected to  
remain higher than the usual wind-wave relationship due to elevated 
southerly swells from the central and southern Gulf of Mexico. 
Thereafter winds are forecast to reach cautionary levels out of the 
north on Sunday night into Monday morning behind the passage of a 
weak cold front.

.FIRE WEATHER...Sufficient low level moisture is expected to keep 
fire weather concerns limited for the next 7 days.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   77  55  78  52  70 /  20  20  40  20  10 
Panama City   74  60  75  52  67 /  20  20  40  10  10 
Dothan        75  59  75  46  67 /  30  30  40  10  10 
Albany        76  56  78  47  67 /  20  20  40  10  10 
Valdosta      76  53  78  50  69 /  10  10  40  20  10 
Cross City    79  54  78  56  73 /  10  10  40  30  10 
Apalachicola  71  59  72  55  67 /  20  20  40  20  10 

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None
GM...None.

Aviation/Fire Wx/Long Term...DVD
Public/Marine...Gould