Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion Atlantic | Pacific

000
AXNT20 KNHC 041140
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N15W TO 
07N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
07N20W TO 03N26W TO 02N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
03N-06N BETWEEN 47W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING ALONG 91W FROM THE SE LOUISIANA COAST TO A BASE IN THE 
SW GULF NEAR 20N91W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MIDDLE 
TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD EAST OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER 
THE EASTERN GULF AS E-SE FLOW PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE. THESE 
E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT 
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY ON 
SATURDAY AS A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE 
BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND A 1030 
MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLC COAST NEAR 37N75W. AS THE 
HIGH SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC OVER THE 
WEEKEND...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME AS A COLD FRONT 
EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. 
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE FRONT 
OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN GULF AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS 
OVER THE SE CONUS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SPINE 
OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO A BASE OVER 
PANAMA. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW 
PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH WIDELY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING W OF 77W TO OVER 
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA. EASTERLY TRADES 
REMAIN STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS 
ENCOMPASSING THE AREA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W TO 78W AND 
SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 12 FT. EAST OF 70W...WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS VERY LITTLE MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM OVER TRINIDAD NEAR 10N61W TO BEYOND 20N70W. WITH THIS 
OVERALL SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN...CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN FAIR WITH GENERALLY 
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM TRINIDAD 
IN THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 10N61W NORTHWESTWARD TO BEYOND 
32N80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM 
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER 
PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC CONTINUES TO MOVE E-NE ON THE 
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGING AND EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
32N49W THEN W-SW TO 26N60W WHERE THE BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS TO A 
SHEAR LINE WESTWARD TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND 
SHEAR LINE. WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC DUE TO THE 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 
20N59W TO 27N53W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED 
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BY A 1041 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE 
IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 46N07W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM THE HIGH TO 32N29W SW TO 25N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN